Equity Curve Simulator

Stress-test the path of a trading system before trusting the outcome.

Run multiple simulated equity curves from win rate, reward-to-risk, risk per trade, and sample size. The goal is not prediction. The goal is to understand variance, drawdown, and survival.

Monte Carlo paths

Expected value

0.26R

Profitable runs

93.3%

Limit breach

0.0%

Median final

$12,664

Risk note: Educational simulation only. Results depend entirely on the assumptions you enter and do not forecast actual trading performance.

Monte Carlo paths

$10,000 starting capital

Each thin line is one possible sequence. The bright line is the median path.

8.8K10.9K12.9K15K17.1K0255075100Trades

Outcome summary

Best run

$16,971

Worst run

$9,715

Average max DD

8.6%

Severe DD

12.5%

Avg loss streak

6.9

Equity Curve Simulator

Why equity curves matter.

A positive expectancy system can still produce ugly drawdowns, losing streaks, and slow periods. Simulating many possible trade sequences makes the risk visible before you increase size.

Open risk path

If the limit breach is high, reduce risk per trade before chasing returns.

If the median curve is flat, the system needs better expectancy or lower cost.

If loss streaks feel emotionally impossible, the risk is too large for the trader.

Use this with the risk management lessons before setting prop-firm or live-account rules.